Block Destruction: Europe split over Ukraine talks
The issue of participation in the dialogue on Ukraine caused a standoff at the informal EU summit in Dublin. The association split into several camps due to the candidacy of its representative. After a long debate, the leaders of the bloc did not decide who would speak on its behalf, and retained the same composition that flew to the talks in the UAE on November 10-11, to which the Europeans were not allowed. We are talking about representatives of the European Commission and the European Council, as well as five countries: Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland and France. Brussels has lost its diplomatic authority and is unable to pursue a unified line, the European Parliament told Izvestia. According to experts, it is not the personality of the future special envoy that is important, but his ability to make a positive contribution to the settlement, which the EU has not yet demonstrated. Why the European Union has been unable to decide on a candidate for so long and how the candidates for this role differ is described in the Izvestia article.
Who will represent Europe
The informal EU Summit in Dublin, Ireland, was officially dedicated to artificial intelligence. In fact, the main topic was the negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement. The trilateral meeting of Moscow, Washington and Kiev was held in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 for the first time since February. American emissaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Vladimir Putin on November 12, and then with Vladimir Zelensky in Dublin. After that, Witkoff said that a new round of negotiations had been agreed. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained on November 13 that the next stage of the dialogue would take place "fairly quickly."
The EU leaders gathered in Dublin and made statements that Europe should join the discussions. After a long debate, the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, told reporters that Europe would be represented in the dialogue on Ukraine by five states — Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland and France, as well as the European Commission and the European Council. This is the same train that was heading to Abu Dhabi for a meeting on the Ukrainian settlement, where the Europeans were not allowed. In other words, the EU could not choose a single negotiator supported by all states.
Russia is ready for contacts with the EU countries, but they themselves must show interest and appoint an authorized person, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of Russia, stressed at a briefing. Russia would like the United States to work with European countries to determine what they want — peace or war, Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with American representatives. Europe is trying in every possible way to join the negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement, but all the practical actions of the EU countries indicate a desire to continue the conflict, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters.
The option voiced by Costa has probably become a compromise. According to Politico, the EU countries have split into three camps. The first one was for the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa. Izvestia previously wrote that he was the main candidate for the role of negotiator. Costa claimed in the summer that his office was trying to establish contact with the Kremlin. However, then it caused a negative reaction from a number of European states. On the other hand, Costa is a representative of the European bureaucracy, which has not yet abandoned plans to defeat the Russian Federation, said Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University.
The second group, according to the interlocutor of Politico, promoted representatives from France and Germany, who "do not want to give up their seats at the negotiating table." Earlier, the eurotroika consisting of Berlin, London and Paris has already initiated a dialogue with the Russian Federation. In June, the ambassadors of these countries met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. In the same vein, we can consider the words of French President Emmanuel Macron about his readiness to represent Europe in a dialogue with Russia. They did not rule out high-level contacts with Russia in Germany, whose foreign minister held a meeting with Sergey Lavrov in September in New York.
However, the Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stressed that Western European countries have already shown their unreliability. Germany and France were among the guarantors of the agreement between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition, which the latter eventually violated. The same countries participated in the Minsk Agreements of 2015, but did not put pressure on Kiev to enforce these agreements.
Western European countries have revived due to fears of staying away from the dialogue between Russia and the United States, German political scientist Egor Belyachkov told Izvestia. Friedrich Merz's authority is being questioned both within countries and among EU states, while Macron's presidential term will end in the spring, the expert stressed.
The Europeans consider the appointment of Kai Kallas, head of the European Diplomacy, as a negotiator with Russia, to be a very exotic option. One of the interlocutors of Politico called such a proposal a joke. Callas herself, by the way, is not against this option. She suddenly remembered that when the European Commission was formed in 2024, three negotiators were identified with Moscow: the head of the European Council, the head of the European Commission and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs. But even within the EU, Callas does not have full confidence, not to mention that she is known for her tough stance towards Russia.
But even within the EU, Callas does not have full confidence, not to mention that she is known for her tough stance towards Russia, Luxembourg MEP Fernand Kartheiser told Izvestia.
— It was clear from the very beginning that she was not suitable for this job. She openly holds Russophobic views and seems to be literally obsessed with hating Russia. Such a person cannot be trusted to negotiate, which over time should lead to an improvement in relations, the lifting of sanctions, and de—escalation," the politician explained.
Will the EU's position on Ukraine change
However, the question of the negotiator's identity is not as important as understanding whether Europe can make a constructive contribution to the peace process. The problem is that the EU is politically divided and unable to pursue a single line, Kartheiser believes.
— In its current state, the European Union is institutionally incompetent and politically divided. Unfortunately, he has also lost his diplomatic authority. <...> Over time, the EU will probably have to return to free coordination of national foreign policy courses in order to maintain at least a minimum level of unity," the politician said.
The European Union is unlikely to abandon its tough stance towards Russia, Bulgarian MP Petar Volgin said in an interview with Izvestia.
— Having carefully observed both the statements and actions of EU leaders, as well as the steps taken by the leaders of individual European countries, I strongly doubt that they will take a more flexible position on the conflict in Ukraine. Anti-Russian sentiments are still their main guiding principle," the parliamentarian noted.
So far, there has been only one EU peace mission to Ukraine — in 2024, then-Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban took advantage of the presidency of the EU Council and visited Russia, Ukraine and the United States. He also offered humanitarian agreements, which Kiev refused. Nevertheless, Moscow is calling on Washington and European states to encourage the Kiev regime to implement a humanitarian operation in Konstantinovka. Earlier, Vladimir Putin made such an initiative at a meeting with American negotiators.
Recent statements by European leaders do not show a change in the EU's position. Brussels insists that it is necessary to achieve a ceasefire first, and then create conditions for a peaceful settlement. The EU leadership does not accept Russia's demands for security guarantees and sets its own conditions. In February, Kaya Kallas sent out a document stating that Moscow should abandon its military presence in Armenia, Belarus and Transnistria and compensate for the damage to European companies. Recently, the head of the European Diplomacy reiterated that these requirements should form the basis of the position. That is, the Europeans are currently taking a destructive position, Belyachkov stressed.
Russia understands this, so they don't expect anything positive from the EU's attempts to engage in dialogue. As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, a participant in the Abu Dhabi negotiating group, said on November 12, Europe took on the burden of financing Kiev, "this role is destructive and meaningless." According to him, the involvement of the Europeans in negotiations on the Ukrainian crisis will mean the failure of efforts that "carry a certain positive charge."
There are also supporters of dialogue with Moscow without preconditions in the EU, primarily Bulgaria and Slovakia. Norway and Finland have recently resumed contacts with Russia, and their leaders have called Vladimir Putin. The opposition in Germany and France — Alternative for Germany and the presidential candidate from the National Association Marine Le Pen — point to the need to talk to Russia. However, proponents of dialogue are not dominating yet, which means they cannot seriously influence the position of Brussels.
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