Union of Doubt: EU to discuss Costa's candidacy for the role of chief negotiator on Ukraine

The main candidate for the role of the EU negotiator on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis was the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, Izvestia found out. According to editorial sources, the leaders of the Nordic countries, who were previously considered for this role, are taking too tough a stance towards the Russian Federation. A decision on his candidacy may be made already at the informal EU summit on November 13 in Dublin. However, experts doubt that the Europeans will make a constructive contribution to the dialogue. In addition, Russia is not yet ready to expand the current trilateral format of the negotiation process. The Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that so far Europe has only issued ultimatums and demands, and its role in the conflict is destructive. Representatives of European countries were present in Abu Dhabi, but not at the negotiating table - they interacted only with the delegations of the United States and Ukraine.

Who will represent Europe in the dialogue with Russia

The process of resolving the Ukrainian conflict has intensified dramatically over the past three days. After trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow and then traveled to Dublin. Vladimir Zelensky and European leaders are waiting for them there to learn the results of the diplomatic tour. Witkoff has already announced that he will try to convince the Ukrainian leader of the need to follow the path of ending the conflict.

The course of settlement: How did Putin's talks with Witkoff and Kushner go?

The sides discussed ways to achieve peace in Ukraine and possible European participation in the dialogue.

Europeans in Ireland gather in two formats. On November 12, a meeting of the European Political Community, which includes 47 countries, was held. Following the results of the first day, the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, said that the EU does not see significant progress in ending the conflict in Ukraine, but continues to support diplomatic efforts to resolve it. He also said that Brussels insists that it is necessary to achieve a ceasefire first, and then create conditions for a peaceful settlement.

Russia would like the Americans to work with European countries and they would decide what they want — peace or war, Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, which took place in the Kremlin on November 12. Europe is trying in every possible way to join the negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement, but all practical actions of the EU countries indicate a desire to continue the conflict, Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters. Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian leader, drew attention to the preparation of the European military contingent for deployment in Ukraine.

"[This] will mean a further continuation of the war, and on a broader scale,— Peskov said.

On Friday, November 13, only the heads and prime ministers of the EU countries, as well as the leadership of the association, will gather in Dublin. The main topic of the discussions will be the nomination of a single negotiator for dialogue with Russia. The initiator was Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who warned that the lack of a unified position could prolong the conflict.

Photo: Global Look Press/Alicia Windzio

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told Politico that the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, and the president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, are considered among the candidates. However, the appointment of Callas is extremely unlikely, given her harsh statements about Russia. There are other options: Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico suggested European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic.

Conversational device: Europe is trying to restore communication channels with Russia

The leaders of Norway and Finland, two countries from the camp of the main supporters of Ukraine, called Moscow.

However, Antonio Costa has become the most likely candidate for the role of EU representative at the negotiations on Ukraine, head of the Ukraine–EU Parliamentary Cooperation Committee in the European Parliament (EP) Pekka Toveri told Izvestia.

— Small countries cannot act as representatives of the European Union, especially the states of Northern Europe, which take an extremely harsh and vocal position towards Russia. I believe that the goal is to finally come to an agreement and give a mandate to the President of the European Council, Mr. Costa, to represent the EU or even the whole of Europe, that is, the EU and its partners," said the MEP.

This information was confirmed to Izvestia by an anonymous European source, who said that "Antonio Costa had previously established contacts with the Russian Federation, so he is considered a likely candidate for the role of representative of the European Union."

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Special Envoy of the President of the United States Stephen Witkoff and son-in-law of the President of the United States Jared Kushner during a meeting in Moscow

Photo: RIA Novosti/Vyacheslav Prokofiev

According to Tovery, "Costa could have taken a slightly more neutral position and better represented the entire community than the head of any individual state." At the same time, the decision on his appointment can be made already at an informal summit on November 13, the head of the European Parliament's committee on relations with Ukraine believes.

Antonio Costa can lead an entire group of negotiators, Luxembourg MEP Fernand Kartheiser said in an interview with Izvestia. However, he doubts that this delegation will be able to make a constructive contribution to the negotiations.

— There are deep differences between the EU member states on many issues related to the conflict. In addition, larger states will probably insist on including their representatives in the delegation just out of principle," the MEP noted.

In late October, Costa said that the EU was ready to use various communication channels to participate in the conflict settlement. His chief of staff, Pedro Laurti, called the Russian presidential administration several times in June. The fact of the contacts was confirmed on June 24 by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The European media explained that they were of a technical nature. But even such contacts have angered a number of European leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who have accused Costa of arbitrariness. Since then, the head of the European Council has been speaking more cautiously on this topic.

The head of the European Council, Antonio Costa

Photo: TASS/Paul Zinken

Russia is unlikely to abandon contacts with Antonio Costa, but it is unlikely that they will help move towards a peaceful settlement, says Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University. Costa is part of the EU leadership, which has not abandoned plans to defeat Russia. Moreover, his role as head of the European Council is to bring the positions of the 27 heads of state and government of the EU to a common denominator. In other words, his involvement in the EU's anti-Russian policy is also great. Therefore, it is now more effective to interact on a bilateral basis with those states of the association that are ready to contribute to the negotiation process, the expert believes.

Previously, the presidents and prime ministers of European countries were considered among the candidates for the role of chief negotiator. In particular, Western media pointed to two people: Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Garstere, who called Vladimir Putin on October 27. However, they immediately clarified that they were not speaking on behalf of Europe. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who was also named among the candidates, officially refused to participate in negotiations with Moscow. Vladimir Putin called former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder an acceptable candidate for Russia, but the EU leadership opposed this idea.

The EU's position on negotiations with Russia

The problem lies not only in the candidacy of the special envoy, but also in the position of Europe. As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, a participant in the Abu Dhabi negotiating group, said on November 12, Europe took on the burden of financing Ukraine, "this role is destructive and meaningless." According to him, the involvement of the Europeans in negotiations on the Ukrainian crisis will mean the failure of efforts that "carry a certain positive charge."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov during a trilateral meeting of representatives of Russia, the United States and Ukraine

Photo: TASS/Grigory Sysoev

It is important that the "coalition of the willing," consisting mainly of Europeans, conducts parallel exercises in Poland to practice the deployment of troops to Ukraine in the event of a cease-fire. At the same time, the Europeans are aware of Moscow's position: the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine is unacceptable for Russia. Brussels is also not abandoning sanctions pressure: on November 16, the foreign ministers of the EU countries will approve a new expansion of blacklists.

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The German Chancellor is trying to put pressure on those who do not want to finance Ukraine

The European Union has not made realistic proposals for a peaceful settlement, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large for crimes committed by the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.

— The European Union has not yet made any realistic proposals for a peaceful settlement. That is, there were only some ultimatums, demands, or absolutely inadequate statements from a number of European leaders," the diplomat stressed.

Miroshnik noted that the European Commission "has already allocated money for the continuation of the war, but claims to be a peacemaker." Just on October 30, the EC approved a proposal to the EU Council to provide Ukraine with the last part of the already agreed loan in the amount of €45 billion for 2027.

Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO

The Europeans were present in Abu Dhabi. We are talking about representatives of the European Commission and the European Council, as well as delegations of diplomatic advisers from Great Britain, Germany, Italy and France. However, they only interacted with the US and Ukrainian delegations. At the same time, information about new contacts is already being received from Europe. Alexander Stubb expressed the opinion that negotiations on technical issues between Russia, the United States, Ukraine and Europe may take place in the near future.

The main problem for the Europeans, which is why they are blocking the reconciliation process, is not the territorial issue of Ukraine, but the fact that Russia is strengthening its position in the European security architecture, political analyst Alexander Rahr told Izvestia. Earlier, Donald Trump said that a future peace agreement should affect not only Ukraine, but the whole of Europe. The participants in the negotiations in the UAE confirmed the fact of discussing a new European security system. Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with US representatives in the Kremlin, stressed that the Europeans had rejected Trump's proposal to reach an agreement on this matter. Back in early November, Kaya Kallas said that the EU and NATO should ensure Europe's security.

If the EU does identify a candidate for the role of negotiator with Russia, it will be a step forward. However, a drastic change in the situation cannot be expected until the moment when an understanding of the need to take into account Moscow's interests prevails in Europe.