Friction exchange: Has the conflict in Ukraine come closer to an end after the Abu Dhabi talks

Russia and Ukraine have moved closer to peace after the Abu Dhabi talks, but much will depend on all participants in the process, the head of the Russian delegation, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Medinsky, said after the meetings. The key topic of the dialogue was not a temporary ceasefire or territorial issues, but the overall architecture of European security. In addition, Moscow and Kiev have agreed on a new prisoner exchange — it may take place in the next two to three weeks, and it will be one of the largest, said Alexander Zorin, a representative of the Russian General Staff. On November 12, following the meetings in the Emirates, American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin. The results of the discussions in the UAE and their impact on the settlement process can be found in the Izvestia article.

The results of the negotiations in Abu Dhabi

A new round of trilateral talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine ended in Abu Dhabi on November 11. At the final press conference, the head of the Russian delegation, presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, said that Russia and Ukraine had agreed on a large-scale prisoner exchange. Later, Alexander Zorin, First Deputy head of the Information Department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, clarified that the exchange could take place in the next two to three weeks and would be one of the largest. Earlier, Vladimir Zelensky stated that the negotiators discussed the possibility of a thousand-for-a-thousand exchange.

However, the central issue of the meetings in the UAE was the topic of the European security system. According to Medinsky, "somewhere we managed to find mutual understanding, and somewhere we didn't."

— We believe that the very question of what will happen after the imminent end of the conflict in Ukraine is the right one. The issue of the architecture of European security and the need to create a new, comprehensive and fair security system in Europe has been raised by Russia more than once," he said.

Medinsky stressed that the events in Ukraine have shown that the entire European security system that developed after Yalta and Potsdam is working "very poorly." According to him, the whole body is sick, and in Ukraine "an abscess just broke out." By the way, in 2008, Russia proposed to develop a draft treaty on European security, and in 2021, it sent the relevant documents to NATO and the United States. However, in both cases, these initiatives did not receive adequate support.

— The world needs a new, modern, updated security system, fair, not to the detriment of some individual countries. We will work on this," Medinsky said.

Earlier, the EU, NATO and the United Kingdom expressed their willingness to discuss a new European security architecture. However, a joint document published on November 10 on the website of the European Council clarifies that this system can be based on existing institutions and agreements, primarily the North Atlantic Alliance, and should be created after the end of the crisis in Ukraine.

This can hardly be considered a significant change in Europe's position on Ukraine, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Just the willingness to discuss European security issues on the part of both the United States and the EU means little, since these issues can be resolved only after the conflict is resolved, and this is unlikely to happen yet, says Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor at the MGIMO Department of Political Theory. Politico previously reported that NATO intends to reduce the number of foreign operations and focus on the confrontation with Russia.

Europe's attempt to join the negotiations

The Abu Dhabi talks were a logical continuation of the peace process, which has been on pause since February. Vladimir Medinsky noted the constructive role of the American side in the settlement. According to him, European politicians should learn from the envoys of the President of the United States, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, realism, common sense and the desire for peace.

Speaking to reporters after the talks in Abu Dhabi, Medinsky said that Russia and Ukraine were closer to peace, but much would depend on all participants in the process.

On November 12, Witkoff and Kushner will travel to Russia for a meeting with Vladimir Putin, and then they will travel to Ukraine to visit Vladimir Zelensky. At the final press conference, Kushner said he would discuss with the Russian leader the possibility of involving Europeans in the process. The Western media wrote about such plans of Washington the day before. Although the negotiations in the Emirates were held in a trilateral format, delegates from Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain, the European Commission and NATO nevertheless came to the UAE and held consultations with Kiev. However, Medinsky stressed that the Russian delegation had not contacted them, and their status remained unclear.

— We don't really understand what we can talk about with them. We have not received any peace initiatives or concrete peace proposals from European countries. Therefore, it is unclear what to discuss," Medinsky explained.

Moscow has repeatedly noted that Europe is trying to prolong the Ukrainian crisis by constantly allocating new money and weapons to Kiev. According to Medinsky, the Europeans are contributing to the mass deaths of civilians and are engaged in group deception of the Ukrainian people. When asked by journalists about the conditions under which Brussels will be able to join the peace talks, the head of the Russian delegation replied: "As soon as the Europeans' conscience wakes up."

Experts believe that Russia is unlikely to agree to officially involve European countries in negotiations on Ukraine in the near future. According to Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, the dialogue is not easy as it is, and if Moscow allows another opponent to the table, the pressure on it will only increase. Earlier, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that Brussels categorically refuses to discuss the architecture of European security before the ceasefire. For the Russian Federation, a temporary truce is unacceptable, since it will only give Kiev a break to restore its military potential.

The settlement of the conflict is also hindered by Kiev's position on the territorial issue. Even Kushner noted: Although "significant progress" has been made in the area of security guarantees for Ukraine, it remains the most difficult to negotiate territories. Commenting on this topic, Medinsky stated that "every inch of Russian land will be returned by Russia one way or another." Zelensky repeatedly stressed during the negotiations that he would not withdraw troops from Donbass. At the same time, the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov (included in the list of terrorists and extremists in the Russian Federation), avoided answering the question whether this topic was raised at the meeting in Abu Dhabi.

Experts believe that now the Europeans and Ukraine are not ready to make territorial compromises — there are no public signals for this. That is why the accents of the agenda have shifted in Abu Dhabi: instead of discussions about territories, the architecture of European security has come to the fore, Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, noted in a conversation with Izvestia. This topic is not so "dead", and there is something to discuss in it, he stressed.

Meanwhile, the Russian delegation noted that the round in the Emirates laid the foundation for further work. Most likely, the dialogue will continue, and at the next meetings the parties will be able to reach more ambitious and specific agreements.