Formal flight: Russia and Brazil are unable to resume flights

Russia and Brazil are working on resuming flights, but they cannot decide on a carrier, Izvestia found out. The Russian Federation is counting on local companies, but the main problem is secondary sanctions, the risk of flight congestion and the general stalling of South America as a tourist destination for Russians. Experts believe that it will not be possible to restore flights in the near future. What else makes negotiations more difficult and why it is not possible to learn from the experience of Middle Eastern or Asian countries is in the Izvestia article.

Will Russia and Brazil restore direct flights

Russia and Brazil are striving to establish direct flights, but the prospects for the launch are limited by commercial risks. There is interest at the highest level, but none of the carriers has been selected yet.

— The government is interested in exploring the possibility of direct flights between Brazil and Russia. The organization of such a message depends on the airline's interest and its own assessment of demand, commercial feasibility and operational conditions, as well as compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, the Brazilian Embassy in Russia told Izvestia.

At the same time, the political background for the dialogue between Moscow and Brasilia remains favorable — the victory of Luis Inacio Lula da Silva in the presidential elections in October confirms the course towards further strengthening bilateral relations.

"Work on opening direct flights between Russia and Brazil continues,— the Russian Embassy told Izvestia.

But political will alone is not enough. Russian airlines are actually excluded from this process — according to the estimates of the Ministry of Transport, domestic players are now focused on closing the growing demand on domestic routes. Although technically they could operate flights, there are also geopolitical risks: in case of an emergency, the nearest alternate airfields on the transatlantic route will be located in unfriendly jurisdictions, said Artur Muradyan, Vice President of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR).

Therefore, as former Minister Andrei Nikitin noted back in February, practical steps completely depend on the readiness of Brazilian carriers.

Izvestia sent inquiries to the country's largest airlines with long—haul fleets, Azul and LATAM.

But industry experts do not expect immediate positive decisions from local carriers. The economic feasibility of the route remains a key factor, said Dmitry Gorin, Vice President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry (PCT). The foreign fleet for such flights is designed for 350-400 passengers, while airlines currently cannot guarantee stable loading on an overstretched route.

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And where there is demand, airlines are ready to force the situation. For example, in 2026, more than a thousand flights a week are planned between Russia and Turkey, the most popular tourist destination in the Russian Federation, and there is enough transportation capacity. Demand is so high that two Turkish carriers, Air Anka and TailWind, sold seats without flight permits in May, which left several thousand Russians stranded in Turkey. Brazil, of course, has never had such a flow. At one time, Transaero operated flights, but the company went bankrupt, and traffic over the past 20-30 years has always remained small.

What else prevents airlines from

Moreover, the demand for Latin America among Russian tourists is generally decreasing. According to ATOR, over the past year, the demand for countries in the region has fallen by 75-90%, while interest in Asian and other destinations has increased by 16%. In the first nine months of 2026, Turkey, China, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam and Thailand became the most popular resorts abroad — they received the vast majority of Russian tourists.

In Latin America, the Dominican Republic was the most popular. And trips to Brazil, Argentina, Peru or Chile are mostly individual tourism: with transfers, the journey takes about a day. Russian airlines that used to fly to Cuba and Venezuela have stopped flights, and Turkish and Middle Eastern carriers are taking traffic to the region, Gorin notes.

The situation is also typical for Central America: official contacts on flights with a number of countries are not conducted at all.

"Taking into account the non—commercial number of tourists from Russia, there are currently no negotiations on the establishment of direct flights between Russia and Costa Rica," the Russian Embassy stated.

In neighboring Panama, diplomats record a similar set of problems.

—An obstacle to establishing direct flights is a number of objective factors, primarily the exceptional range of the route (about 11,000 km from Moscow), which requires the use of special aircraft and leads to increased operating costs,— the Russian Embassy in Panama told Izvestia.

The diplomatic mission added that the situation is further complicated by the ban of unfriendly countries on the use of their airspace and sanctions restrictions. The latter make it difficult to access the necessary services, technologies and insurance services, which increases operational risks for air carriers and makes direct flights economically impractical.

For example, if the planes are owned by an airline, only additional insurance is needed, and if they are leased, the consent of the lessor is required, that is, Western companies that strictly comply with sanctions.

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What is preventing the increase in passenger traffic in these directions now

At the same time, not everyone gets insurance, as Gorin notes. Middle Eastern carriers have their own fleets and government insurance for this. The standard is the UAE, where all national carriers fly to Russia, while in Turkey it is a part, but sufficient to cover demand from the Russian Federation.

At the same time, Thailand, for example, is being very careful. Thai Airways does not fly to Russia, but a company specializing specifically in the Russian direction, Siam Wings Airlines, has started operating flights for the 2026/27 season. The example of Vietnam proves that a growing market can provide the necessary incentive: according to ATOR, in the first nine months of 2026, the tourist flow from Russia to this country increased by 160% year-on-year, exceeding the target of 1.1 million arrivals.

However, where there is no commercial incentive, geopolitics is added to the economy. South American countries are still in the orbit of the United States, which is why local airlines have to take into account the risks of pressure from Washington and secondary sanctions. As the international fleet registry shows, this dependence is of a total technological nature: for example, the fleet of Panamanian Copa Airlines and Costa Rican Volaris Costa Rica consists of 100% Boeing and Airbus, critically tied to American engines and spare parts. Fearing embargoes on components from the United States and the EU, which, according to industry surveys by Air Transport Review, hold over 90% of the global aviation market, carriers are forced to take into account Washington's requirements.

Therefore, it is theoretically possible to resume direct flights between Russia and Brazil, but unlikely in the foreseeable future. Russian carriers are unlikely to be able to enter this area in 2026, and foreign companies need firm loading guarantees, a fully owned fleet, and insurance independent of Western lessors.