Hostile forces: Why are Israel and Hamas not making concessions

Three years ago, on October 7, 2023, a full—scale war began between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas. The escalation of the long-standing conflict has not changed the Middle East for the better, and the consequences of the crisis have had an impact on processes far beyond the region. It is premature to talk about calm today: Israel is waiting for new provocations and does not rule out the resumption of hostilities in Gaza, and demonstrations are taking place around the world, alternately in support of Palestinians and Israelis. In such circumstances, a diplomatic settlement becomes a non-trivial task, experts interviewed by Izvestia noted.

Everyone's anniversary is different

In different parts of the world, the mournful date was met in its own way. In Israel, commemorative events began with a gathering of relatives of dead civilians at the Nova Festival site (the first site attacked by Hamas in October 2023). Funeral ceremonies were also held in Kfar Az and other settlements near the border with Gaza. Memorial prayers were also held in large Jewish diasporas outside of Israel, for example, in Australia and the United States.

The mourning tone was also supported by the UN. On October 7, a special event was held at the organization's site with the support of the American mission, at which former Hamas prisoners spoke. At the same time, the American side pragmatically did not narrow the topic down to Israeli casualties alone; during the ceremony, civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip were also mentioned, and the general message of the meeting was that the parties needed to stop violence and reach a sustainable political solution.

However, not everywhere the October 7 agenda turned out to be as restrained. In European countries, along with pro-Israeli actions, many pro-Palestinian events took place. In France and the UK, public organizations and movements competed for the right to assemble the largest rally in support of one of the camps. In Germany, the official authorities issued calls to prevent anti-Semitism (and even highlighted the Brandenburg Gate in the colors of the Israeli flag), but did not ban rallies on the periphery. In total, pro-Palestinian events are planned in more than 40 countries around the world, the media reported, citing a report by the Israeli Ministry of Diaspora Affairs and Combating Anti-Semitism.

There were also scandals. On the eve of the anniversary of Black October, Israel blocked all checkpoints in the Gaza Strip under the pretext of suppressing provocations, prohibiting, among other things, the transportation and delivery of humanitarian aid. As Israeli representatives later explained, the two-day restriction did not significantly affect the humanitarian situation, as the main aid delivery system continued to operate, and the supplies already delivered were distributed inside the exclave.

Currently, Israel controls approximately 60-65% of the territory of the Gaza Strip, mainly in the eastern and northern parts of the Strip. The western (coastal) part of Gaza remains under the steady control of Hamas. In the southern part of the exclave, the zone of control is still disputed by the parties. At the current stage of the confrontation, Israel and Hamas are not using large forces, but there are periodic point skirmishes between them, mainly provoked by Israel's attempts to eliminate another high-ranking commander of the movement.

There is no winner in the conflict

Despite the actual cessation of hostilities back in 2025, it is impossible to determine a clear winner in the conflict. From the point of view of Hamas, the Palestinian side managed to achieve the main thing: to discredit the Israeli military machine, as well as to provoke a deterioration in relations between the Jewish state and some of its strategic partners, primarily with the EU countries, as well as to slow down the normalization of relations with Arab countries under the auspices of the "Abraham agreements."

Israel is convinced that, thanks to the operation in the Gaza Strip, it was able to break the resistance of Hamas, depriving the movement of a significant part of its financial and mobilization base, as well as destroy the backbone of military and political leaders and weaken the movement's ties with Iran. It is no coincidence that a significant part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech on the eve of the third anniversary was devoted not so much to the "lessons of October 7" as to the results of the war with Iran and its proxy groups, as well as promises to "finish what we started."

At the same time, neither side focuses on the human, financial and image losses incurred during the conflict. As political scientist Advan Hisham notes in this regard, such positioning is part of measures to support the internal mobilization of society. According to him, both sides are convinced that they still have a certain "margin of safety" for a new round of clashes. However, for now they prefer targeted actions to a new major war in order not to provoke a reverse transformation of society and outbreaks of anti—war sentiment, he concluded in an interview with Izvestia.

The previous settlement formulas are not working

The key problem of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli crisis remains the lack of consensus on an "ideal formula" for a settlement. With the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House in 2025, the bet was placed on stopping the acute phase of the crisis and overall stabilization of the situation. At the same time, Washington has not worked out a long-term disengagement plan in detail. Ultimately, this led to the fact that both Israel and Hamas began to use all available loopholes of the "Trump plan" in order to delay the transition to the next stage as much as possible and blame opponents for this.

As a result, the Middle East dialogue has reached an impasse, Grigory Lukyanov, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated in an interview with Izvestia. The UN formula of "two states for two peoples" looks like a utopia today, as it is completely divorced from the real balance of power. The situation is also complicated by the protracted split among the Palestinians themselves, whose attempts to reach an agreement among themselves before the internal elections have so far failed. As a result, the weakness and fragmentation of the Palestinian side prevent it from conducting full-fledged negotiations and only strengthen the positions of its opponents. Israeli politicians are now leaning towards a more realistic scenario for them — the creation of one state for two peoples or exclusively for one, Lukyanov stressed.

INF Program Manager Ivan Bocharov drew attention to the fact that the Palestinian-Israeli crisis is not limited to the Gaza Strip alone. Tensions remain high in the West Bank, where violence also regularly breaks out. Therefore, even a stable agreement on Gas by itself will not remove the problem from the agenda. At the same time, neither the Israeli side nor the Palestinian groups have yet demonstrated their willingness to make concessions that could create the basis for a sustainable solution.

As a result, the main task for the international community is to find new approaches to negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian forces. If the parties do not make concessions, and the Palestinian factions cannot agree among themselves, the region may face a new round of large-scale hostilities in the Gaza Strip.