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Export opinion: For the first time, Russia may not enter the EU's top 20 trading partners
Even after the introduction of 20 lists of restrictions, Russia remained in the top twenty largest partners of the European Union, although the volume of mutual trade continues to decline. In January – April 2026, the trade turnover between the Russian Federation and the association decreased by 16.5% compared to the same period last year, the Permanent Mission of Russia to the EU told Izvestia. According to diplomats, the recession has affected almost all product categories. Experts do not rule out that Russia may leave the EU's top twenty trading partners as early as this year. At the same time, Brussels' policy of severing economic ties, according to their estimates, causes serious damage, first of all, to the union itself: the losses of European countries from abandoning only Russian energy resources are estimated at €3 trillion, while Russia continues to diversify export flows.
How Russia's trade with the EU has changed
Trade between Russia and the European Union has fallen to a historic low. Over the past four years, its volumes have more than quadrupled, from €257.5 billion in 2021 to €58.1 billion by the end of 2025. And this decline continues.
— According to Eurostat, in the four months of 2026, the trade turnover between Russia and the EU decreased by 16.5% compared to the same period in 2025. Moreover, imports from Russia to the EU decreased by 30.3%, while counter—EU exports decreased by 1.5%, the Russian permanent mission to the association told Izvestia.
A decrease in trade volumes was noted in almost all product categories, the diplomats explained. Exports from the EU to Russia of mineral fuels, lubricants and similar materials decreased most significantly — by 97.5%. At the same time, there was an increase in imports of beverages and tobacco from Russia to the EU, as well as various finished products — by 25.8% and 0.7%, respectively. In the opposite direction, EU supplies to Russia of chemicals and similar products not included in other categories increased by 9.3%, as well as beverages and tobacco by 4.9%.
In 2024, Russia ranked 15th in the list of the EU's leading trading partners in terms of mutual trade turnover. In 2025, it has already dropped to 19th place, the Russian diplomatic mission noted. If current trends continue, Russia may leave the top 20 leading EU trading partners as early as 2026, Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. According to him, the specific outcome will depend on the price dynamics of the remaining positions, but the strategic course of Brussels to reduce trade with Russia is obvious.
Brussels announced a policy of severing ties with the Russian Federation in 2022, and since then it has extended restrictions to all new areas: from personal sanctions to energy and finance. The permanent mission emphasizes that economic isolation from Russia costs the EES very dearly.
— In recent years, European companies and ordinary citizens have fully felt the consequences of this irresponsible policy: sharp price spikes, high cost of energy resources, falling living standards, closure of industrial enterprises, relocation of production outside the EU, and so on. The total losses of European countries from the abandonment of Russian energy resources, according to some estimates, amount to about €3 trillion, the diplomats said.
At the same time, the EU's bet on accelerated development of renewable energy and increased purchases of expensive American LNG has not justified itself, the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation notes. Electricity and natural gas prices in Europe remain several times higher than in the United States and Asia, and the crisis in the Middle East has shown that without Russian energy resources, the European Union has become significantly more vulnerable in terms of energy security than it was before the start of its development, and depends on the dynamics of the global LNG market.
In recent years, the European economy has been growing very slowly. Growth was a modest 0.4% in 2023, 1.1% in 2024, and 1.5% in 2025. For 2026, analysts predict a decline in rates to 1.1%. This is noticeably worse than the development indicators of both the global economy as a whole and the United States. The situation continues to deteriorate: in the first quarter of 2026, the EU economy shrank by 0.1% compared to the end of last year. Experts warn that due to the conflict in the Middle East, energy prices may rise significantly. If high inflation is added to this, the EU economy risks going into a full-fledged recession this year.
"Against this background, the EES continues to dig a hole for themselves, abandoning long—term and mutually beneficial economic cooperation with our country," the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the EU noted.
Russia diversifies exports
Asian partners confidently occupy the place of the European market in the foreign trade of the Russian Federation. Until 2022, Europe bought about half of all Russian oil exports, but by February 2023, this share had shrunk to 8%. Tanker shipments from Russia to European countries have now almost completely stopped, as 95% of sea exports now go to Asia. India is a prime example of such a reversal. In the fiscal year 2024-2025, Russia's share of Indian crude oil imports soared to 35.8%, although it was a modest 2% until 2022.
In the first four months of 2026, Russia's trade with China increased by 19.7% and reached $85.24 billion, according to the General Customs Administration of the People's Republic of China. Prior to that, by the end of 2024, the turnover between the countries completely broke the historical record, reaching $244.8 billion. Trade relations with India have also reached a peak: in the fiscal year that ended in March 2025, they traded for a record $68.7 billion. This is almost as much as Russia had with the entire European Union in the whole of 2024.
Interestingly, Brussels did not manage to completely abandon Russian supplies in all categories. For example, in the first half of 2026, Russia retained the third place in terms of gas exports to the European Union, passing only Norway and the United States ahead. In 2025, the Russian Federation accounted for about 12% of all gas imported to the EU, mainly due to LNG. Hungary and Slovakia are still the most dependent on this fuel in the Union. A similar story has developed with fertilizers: according to Eurostat, in 2025, Russia's share in European imports was 23%, which is not much less than in 2021, when it was at the level of 28%.
The reorientation of trade relations has already taken place, Egor Sergeev noted. In terms of imports, Russia has actually reached the levels that existed before the 2022 restrictions, due to new suppliers — primarily China, as well as Central Asian countries acting as a buffer for supplies from the EU. The volume of mineral fuel exports has not reached the level of 2021, but the main supplies have been reoriented, and part of the lost external demand has moved to the domestic market. There has been a recent increase in non-energy product categories. Russia has managed to maintain a positive balance in trade in goods, which ensures a stable flow of resources to the economy.
There are no signs of a change of course in Brussels yet: the European Union continues to coordinate the 21st package of sanctions. Although there is no absolute unity in the association, the countries of Southern Europe and part of Eastern Europe often express disagreement with the policy of severing the remaining ties. But the EU's confrontational logic towards Russia will remain decisive for the foreseeable future.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
