Postponed business: when will the Prime Minister of Pakistan arrive in Moscow

Russia expects Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif to visit Moscow in 2026, the Russian Embassy in Islamabad told Izvestia. The visit was previously scheduled for March 3-4, but it was postponed due to the outbreak of hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan and the destabilization in Iran. For Russia, this pause carries both risks and new opportunities. Among the risks is delaying the discussion and the start of the implementation of the Pakistan Stream gas pipeline construction project. At the same time, Russia has a chance to consolidate its role as the main peacemaker in Greater Eurasia by offering Islamabad and Kabul a direct dialogue on its platform.

The Prime Minister of Pakistan could attend the SPIEF

The visit of Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif to Moscow, scheduled for March 3-4, 2026, was canceled at the last moment. So far, no decision has been made on new dates, the Russian Embassy in the republic told Izvestia.

— We assume that it will be held in the near future within a mutually acceptable time frame. It's just about rescheduling the visit. Specific dates were not discussed, but it is assumed that in 2026," the diplomatic mission added.

Izvestia also sent a request to the Pakistani Embassy in Moscow.

The reasons for postponing the trip are obvious: at the end of February, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan entered the stage of open confrontation.

On February 26, Afghanistan launched a military operation along the disputed border between the two countries. Kabul presented its actions as a response to Islamabad's "crimes and insurgencies." Apparently, this is about the recent operations of the Pakistani army against the camps of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic State — Wilayat Khorasan (recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia) in Afghanistan.

And on February 27, Pakistan launched airstrikes on Kabul, Kandahar and the border province of Paktia.

Islamabad regularly accuses the neighboring state of supporting and harboring militants who have repeatedly carried out terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Extremist attacks are believed in Pakistan to be the fault of a long—time enemy, India. Which, of course, denies such accusations.

"The Taliban have turned Afghanistan into a colony of India. They gathered terrorists from all over the world in Afghanistan and started exporting terrorism. <...> Our cup of patience has overflowed. Now there is an open war between us," Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said on February 27.

And a week after the start of the open conflict, the fighting on the border continues, and the number of victims is growing. On March 4, the Pakistani side reported the destruction of 226 Afghan checkpoints and the death of 489 soldiers of the neighboring country, acknowledging its own losses of about 150 soldiers. But the figures of the warring parties radically differ. According to the UN, almost 66,000 people have fled their homes.

In addition, another much larger conflict has broken out in the region. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched strikes on the territory of Iran, which borders Pakistan. After the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, mass protests broke out in Karachi, Pakistan. Clashes with police at the US consulate led to the deaths of several protesters.

— The surest tactic (and the Pakistani government generally adheres to this line) is to wait. Islamabad does not demonstrate its willingness to get involved in the conflict, citing, among other things, its own confrontation with Afghanistan. Pakistan does not need unnecessary turbulence, and therefore it will avoid involvement in the Iranian campaign until the last moment," orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.

Why is Russia interested in cooperation with Pakistan

In such circumstances, the Prime Minister, endowed with full power in a parliamentary republic, simply cannot leave the capital. Any absence of him can be used by the opposition or radical groups to destabilize the situation.

At the same time, Moscow can play a constructive role in resolving the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan both through the SCO and as an independent player, said Omar Nessar, director of the Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan. This topic may be on the agenda of a future meeting between the Pakistani Prime Minister and the Russian leadership.

— Moscow maintains good relations with both sides. The role of the Russian Federation could be more effective in a trilateral format, that is, as an intermediary between Kabul and Islamabad, without the SCO," the expert added.

In recent years, the political dialogue between Russia and Pakistan has been dynamically developing, as well as bilateral cooperation between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other departments, the Russian Embassy told Izvestia.

— Pakistan, as a member of the SCO, an important element of the security architecture and logistics routes in Greater Eurasia, as well as an active representative of the Islamic world, is in the orbit of Russian foreign policy priorities. With this in mind, we are convinced that the course towards expanding Russian-Pakistani cooperation will remain unchanged," the Russian diplomats added.

From a political point of view, cooperation with Pakistan is an attempt to establish self—sufficient relations with another South Asian country besides India and Bangladesh. Pakistan has always been "western" against their background, said Gleb Makarevich, a junior researcher at the IMEMO Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

According to him, there is now great interest in cooperation from SMEs and even large businesses on both sides. But so far, the trade turnover is just over $1 billion. Pakistan is one of the few countries that practices barter trade with Russia. According to the expert, we should expect the participation of the Pakistani delegation at the SPIEF, which will traditionally be held in the summer.

— Officially, it says that we are interested in logistics routes, and we are interested in Pakistan as part of the North–South international transport corridor. We are interested in exporting oil there, and to a lesser extent gas. But there are few specifics yet. Nevertheless, there are great hopes and great opportunities," the expert explained.

For Russia, instability in Pakistan is primarily a threat to strategic economic interests. For example, the discussion of the Pakistan Stream gas pipeline construction project may be suspended.

In the context of armed conflicts in the region, its construction is impossible without reliable security guarantees.

— It is very difficult to maneuver between local players, although Russia does it quite effectively. Here it is necessary to take into account the factor of India, which, in the context of its own and other challenges, is becoming increasingly important for the Russian Federation. Under these conditions, a pause in the work on the project may take a long time," Nessar said.

Russia and Pakistan are discussing the possibility of building a new steel mill on the basis of the existing Karachi Metallurgical Plant, which was built in the 1970s with the help of the USSR.

"We hope that following the results of the upcoming high—level contacts, the parties will be able to reach specific agreements, including regarding the financing and modernization of KMZ and the means to launch the production of Russian insulin in Pakistan," the Russian Embassy in the country said.

There were plans to launch direct flights, but this initiative may face serious difficulties not only due to Western sanctions, but also the security situation. Russian tourists are unlikely to be ready to visit this country en masse, and its infrastructure is not fully adapted to the influx of foreign visitors.